Is British output growth related to its uncertainty? Evidence using eight centuries of data

We examine the empirical relationship between output variability and growth for Britain using data eight centuries covering 1270 to 2014 period. Drawing on economic history literature, we split full sample period into four subperiods use GARCH models measure uncertainty estimate its effect average growth. Within each sub-sample, allow depend state of system, example 2-regime switching model would switch high-growth low-growth regimes. find that differs depending existing regime. Low-growth regimes are associated with a negative growth, medium or positive effect. These findings consistent across states development. Our results indicate why literature date has found mixed when examining